Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 10672 | 45956 | 340 | 98 | 302 | 439 |
| February 05 2021 | 10707 | 46044 | 341 | 101 | 318 | 436 |
| February 06 2021 | 10743 | 46121 | 342 | 101 | 289 | 432 |
| February 07 2021 | 10767 | 46180 | 343 | 101 | 292 | 417 |
| February 08 2021 | 10782 | 46255 | 343 | 101 | 284 | 412 |
| February 09 2021 | 10788 | 46377 | 344 | 104 | 258 | 399 |
| February 10 2021 | 10798 | 46475 | 345 | 104 | 244 | 344 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.1 | 7.4% | 18 | 0.16% | 26 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.1 | 12.7% | 31 | 0.23% | 43 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 6.7 | 30.7% | 75 | 0.36% | 94 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 3.1 | 13.5% | 33 | 0.24% | 44 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.7 | 10.7% | 26 | 0.25% | 45 | 0.43% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.7 | 7.4% | 18 | 0.14% | 30 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.7 | 7.8% | 19 | 0.17% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | -2 | 2.7 | 9.8% | 24 | 0.23% | 33 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 10 | 23.0 | 100% | 244 | 0.23% | 344 | 0.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 6871 | 27099 | 208 | 84 | 178 | 272 |
| February 05 2021 | 6888 | 27146 | 209 | 84 | 178 | 246 |
| February 06 2021 | 6902 | 27191 | 209 | 86 | 165 | 245 |
| February 07 2021 | 6910 | 27245 | 210 | 86 | 141 | 229 |
| February 08 2021 | 6917 | 27274 | 211 | 86 | 130 | 224 |
| February 09 2021 | 6922 | 27317 | 212 | 86 | 121 | 212 |
| February 10 2021 | 6932 | 27372 | 213 | 87 | 110 | 195 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 3.6% | 4 | 0.05% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.3 | 16.4% | 18 | 0.21% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 1.4 | 16.4% | 18 | 0.25% | 29 | 0.41% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3% | 8 | 0.1% | 25 | 0.3% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.7 | 18.2% | 20 | 0.26% | 26 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.6 | 15.5% | 17 | 0.18% | 32 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 0.9 | 10.9% | 12 | 0.14% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.1 | 11.8% | 13 | 0.18% | 24 | 0.34% |
| All ages | 10 | 9.9 | 100% | 110 | 0.17% | 195 | 0.3% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 5163 | 18101 | 218 | 72 | 127 | 213 |
| February 05 2021 | 5179 | 18131 | 221 | 73 | 136 | 195 |
| February 06 2021 | 5183 | 18154 | 220 | 72 | 124 | 177 |
| February 07 2021 | 5188 | 18177 | 221 | 72 | 101 | 164 |
| February 08 2021 | 5192 | 18195 | 221 | 72 | 84 | 156 |
| February 09 2021 | 5195 | 18209 | 223 | 73 | 73 | 152 |
| February 10 2021 | 5205 | 18255 | 225 | 74 | 71 | 146 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.6% | 4 | 0.07% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.3 | 12.7% | 9 | 0.17% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.1 | 15.5% | 11 | 0.24% | 22 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.7 | 11.3% | 8 | 0.15% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.9 | 8.5% | 6 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.1 | 16.9% | 12 | 0.18% | 24 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.0 | 11.3% | 8 | 0.13% | 19 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.7 | 18.3% | 13 | 0.21% | 21 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 10 | 8.3 | 100% | 71 | 0.16% | 146 | 0.32% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 11843 | 49643 | 341 | 74 | 461 | 650 |
| February 05 2021 | 11869 | 49775 | 341 | 74 | 452 | 652 |
| February 06 2021 | 11893 | 49892 | 342 | 74 | 435 | 614 |
| February 07 2021 | 11905 | 49965 | 341 | 74 | 402 | 606 |
| February 08 2021 | 11918 | 50045 | 341 | 74 | 271 | 536 |
| February 09 2021 | 11945 | 50154 | 343 | 75 | 258 | 528 |
| February 10 2021 | 11979 | 50369 | 347 | 75 | 251 | 521 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.6 | 5.6% | 14 | 0.12% | 31 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 4.1 | 16.3% | 41 | 0.25% | 90 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 5.1 | 19.5% | 49 | 0.23% | 128 | 0.6% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.6 | 19.1% | 48 | 0.35% | 82 | 0.6% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.3 | 12.7% | 32 | 0.24% | 56 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2.7 | 11.2% | 28 | 0.2% | 56 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.1 | 9.6% | 24 | 0.17% | 45 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 4 | 1.9 | 6% | 15 | 0.12% | 33 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 34 | 23.4 | 100% | 251 | 0.21% | 521 | 0.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 38372 | 313667 | 1162 | 256 | 1087 | 1626 |
| February 05 2021 | 38487 | 314043 | 1162 | 256 | 1135 | 1543 |
| February 06 2021 | 38588 | 314338 | 1168 | 256 | 1192 | 1510 |
| February 07 2021 | 38669 | 314788 | 1172 | 256 | 1069 | 1476 |
| February 08 2021 | 38768 | 315252 | 1176 | 256 | 1061 | 1483 |
| February 09 2021 | 38807 | 315494 | 1181 | 264 | 959 | 1455 |
| February 10 2021 | 38906 | 315853 | 1182 | 264 | 957 | 1510 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.7 | 4.6% | 44 | 0.07% | 72 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 37 | 28.9 | 25.8% | 247 | 0.35% | 339 | 0.48% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 32.1 | 30.4% | 291 | 0.28% | 464 | 0.45% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 11.6 | 10.6% | 101 | 0.13% | 171 | 0.22% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 10.0 | 9.4% | 90 | 0.14% | 155 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 11.3 | 10.1% | 97 | 0.15% | 175 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.3 | 5% | 48 | 0.09% | 77 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 1 | 4.1 | 4.1% | 39 | 0.08% | 57 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 99 | 106.0 | 100% | 957 | 0.18% | 1510 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 04 2021 | 546955 | 2523102 | 24634 | 5992 | 13038 | 18854 |
| February 05 2021 | 548221 | 2527562 | 24734 | 6020 | 13003 | 18050 |
| February 06 2021 | 549155 | 2531066 | 24824 | 6052 | 12609 | 17303 |
| February 07 2021 | 549826 | 2534922 | 24885 | 6054 | 11478 | 16855 |
| February 08 2021 | 550369 | 2538097 | 24919 | 6055 | 10454 | 16452 |
| February 09 2021 | 551050 | 2541584 | 25021 | 6094 | 9642 | 15832 |
| February 10 2021 | 551871 | 2546576 | 25090 | 6129 | 9456 | 15325 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 52 | 56.9 | 6.2% | 583 | 0.09% | 953 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 145 | 139.1 | 14.8% | 1397 | 0.18% | 2185 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 137 | 151.4 | 16.1% | 1526 | 0.2% | 2469 | 0.33% |
| 30-39 | 105 | 130.3 | 14.2% | 1340 | 0.18% | 2193 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 104 | 119.3 | 13.3% | 1261 | 0.18% | 2105 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 128 | 134.6 | 14.4% | 1364 | 0.17% | 2204 | 0.27% |
| 60-69 | 89 | 99.6 | 11.3% | 1073 | 0.14% | 1696 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 61 | 88.0 | 9.6% | 912 | 0.14% | 1520 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 821 | 919.1 | 100% | 9456 | 0.16% | 15325 | 0.26% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.9 | 31.6 | 44.9 | 23 | 31.3 | 20.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30.2 | 9.9 | 20.6 | 17.3% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32.3 | 8.3 | 16.6 | 22.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44.1 | 54.4 | 60.1 | 23.4 | 58.3 | 16.2% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.6 | 47.7 | 44.7 | 106 | 110 | 20.7% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.3 | 28.9 | 32.6 | 919.1 | 1365.1 | 18.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5215"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges