Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 10672 45956 340 98 302 439
February 05 2021 10707 46044 341 101 318 436
February 06 2021 10743 46121 342 101 289 432
February 07 2021 10767 46180 343 101 292 417
February 08 2021 10782 46255 343 101 284 412
February 09 2021 10788 46377 344 104 258 399
February 10 2021 10798 46475 345 104 244 344
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 2.1 7.4% 18 0.16% 26 0.23%
10-19 2 2.1 12.7% 31 0.23% 43 0.32%
20-29 4 6.7 30.7% 75 0.36% 94 0.45%
30-39 1 3.1 13.5% 33 0.24% 44 0.32%
40-49 1 2.7 10.7% 26 0.25% 45 0.43%
50-59 1 1.7 7.4% 18 0.14% 30 0.24%
60-69 2 1.7 7.8% 19 0.17% 29 0.25%
70+ -2 2.7 9.8% 24 0.23% 33 0.32%
All ages 10 23.0 100% 244 0.23% 344 0.33%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 6871 27099 208 84 178 272
February 05 2021 6888 27146 209 84 178 246
February 06 2021 6902 27191 209 86 165 245
February 07 2021 6910 27245 210 86 141 229
February 08 2021 6917 27274 211 86 130 224
February 09 2021 6922 27317 212 86 121 212
February 10 2021 6932 27372 213 87 110 195
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 3.6% 4 0.05% 13 0.17%
10-19 1 2.3 16.4% 18 0.21% 27 0.32%
20-29 3 1.4 16.4% 18 0.25% 29 0.41%
30-39 1 0.4 7.3% 8 0.1% 25 0.3%
40-49 2 1.7 18.2% 20 0.26% 26 0.34%
50-59 0 1.6 15.5% 17 0.18% 32 0.33%
60-69 2 0.9 10.9% 12 0.14% 19 0.23%
70+ 1 1.1 11.8% 13 0.18% 24 0.34%
All ages 10 9.9 100% 110 0.17% 195 0.3%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 5163 18101 218 72 127 213
February 05 2021 5179 18131 221 73 136 195
February 06 2021 5183 18154 220 72 124 177
February 07 2021 5188 18177 221 72 101 164
February 08 2021 5192 18195 221 72 84 156
February 09 2021 5195 18209 223 73 73 152
February 10 2021 5205 18255 225 74 71 146
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5.6% 4 0.07% 7 0.13%
10-19 1 1.3 12.7% 9 0.17% 21 0.39%
20-29 1 1.1 15.5% 11 0.24% 22 0.49%
30-39 2 0.7 11.3% 8 0.15% 15 0.28%
40-49 2 0.9 8.5% 6 0.12% 17 0.34%
50-59 2 1.1 16.9% 12 0.18% 24 0.35%
60-69 0 1.0 11.3% 8 0.13% 19 0.3%
70+ 2 1.7 18.3% 13 0.21% 21 0.33%
All ages 10 8.3 100% 71 0.16% 146 0.32%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 11843 49643 341 74 461 650
February 05 2021 11869 49775 341 74 452 652
February 06 2021 11893 49892 342 74 435 614
February 07 2021 11905 49965 341 74 402 606
February 08 2021 11918 50045 341 74 271 536
February 09 2021 11945 50154 343 75 258 528
February 10 2021 11979 50369 347 75 251 521
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.6 5.6% 14 0.12% 31 0.26%
10-19 7 4.1 16.3% 41 0.25% 90 0.54%
20-29 3 5.1 19.5% 49 0.23% 128 0.6%
30-39 4 3.6 19.1% 48 0.35% 82 0.6%
40-49 5 3.3 12.7% 32 0.24% 56 0.41%
50-59 6 2.7 11.2% 28 0.2% 56 0.39%
60-69 4 2.1 9.6% 24 0.17% 45 0.32%
70+ 4 1.9 6% 15 0.12% 33 0.25%
All ages 34 23.4 100% 251 0.21% 521 0.44%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 38372 313667 1162 256 1087 1626
February 05 2021 38487 314043 1162 256 1135 1543
February 06 2021 38588 314338 1168 256 1192 1510
February 07 2021 38669 314788 1172 256 1069 1476
February 08 2021 38768 315252 1176 256 1061 1483
February 09 2021 38807 315494 1181 264 959 1455
February 10 2021 38906 315853 1182 264 957 1510
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 4.7 4.6% 44 0.07% 72 0.12%
10-19 37 28.9 25.8% 247 0.35% 339 0.48%
20-29 26 32.1 30.4% 291 0.28% 464 0.45%
30-39 9 11.6 10.6% 101 0.13% 171 0.22%
40-49 10 10.0 9.4% 90 0.14% 155 0.24%
50-59 8 11.3 10.1% 97 0.15% 175 0.27%
60-69 3 3.3 5% 48 0.09% 77 0.14%
70+ 1 4.1 4.1% 39 0.08% 57 0.12%
All ages 99 106.0 100% 957 0.18% 1510 0.28%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
February 04 2021 546955 2523102 24634 5992 13038 18854
February 05 2021 548221 2527562 24734 6020 13003 18050
February 06 2021 549155 2531066 24824 6052 12609 17303
February 07 2021 549826 2534922 24885 6054 11478 16855
February 08 2021 550369 2538097 24919 6055 10454 16452
February 09 2021 551050 2541584 25021 6094 9642 15832
February 10 2021 551871 2546576 25090 6129 9456 15325
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 52 56.9 6.2% 583 0.09% 953 0.15%
10-19 145 139.1 14.8% 1397 0.18% 2185 0.29%
20-29 137 151.4 16.1% 1526 0.2% 2469 0.33%
30-39 105 130.3 14.2% 1340 0.18% 2193 0.29%
40-49 104 119.3 13.3% 1261 0.18% 2105 0.3%
50-59 128 134.6 14.4% 1364 0.17% 2204 0.27%
60-69 89 99.6 11.3% 1073 0.14% 1696 0.22%
70+ 61 88.0 9.6% 912 0.14% 1520 0.24%
All ages 821 919.1 100% 9456 0.16% 15325 0.26%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
32.9 31.6 44.9 23 31.3 20.5%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
30.2 9.9 20.6 17.3%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
32.3 8.3 16.6 22.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
44.1 54.4 60.1 23.4 58.3 16.2%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
27.6 47.7 44.7 106 110 20.7%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
26.3 28.9 32.6 919.1 1365.1 18.1%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.62 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5215"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red